Winning Probability Maximization Using Random Participant Behavior in the Monty Hall Dilemma
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Causality and Reasoning: The Monty Hall Dilemma
In the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) contestants try to choose which of three doors conceals a prize. After selecting a door, one of the other doors is opened by a host who knows where the prize is, but always reveals a dud. Contestants are then asked if they want to stay with their first choice, or switch to the other unopened door? Switching yields a two-thirds chance of winning, but most people h...
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The Monty Hall Dilemma is a probability puzzle that is notorious for eliciting suboptimal decisions from humans. A participant is given a choice from among three doors, one of which conceals a valuable prize. After an initial selection, one of the remaining, nonwinning doors is opened, and the participant is given a chance to switch to the other unopened door. The probability of winning is high...
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The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a striking example of the human tendency to base probability judgment on intuitive, erroneous heuristics instead of an analytic, normative reasoning process. Two experiments tested the claim (e.g., Stanovich & West, 2000) that correct, normative reasoning draws on executive, working memory resources (WM) whereas heuristic reasoning would be purely automatic. Expe...
متن کاملThe Monty Hall Problem is not a Probability
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch
متن کاملProbability, rational single-case decisions and the Monty Hall Problem
The application of probabilistic arguments to rational decisions in a single case is a contentious philosophical issue which arises in various contexts. Some authors (e.g. Horgan, Philos Pap 24:209–222, 1995; Levy, Synthese 158:139–151, 2007) affirm the normative force of probabilistic arguments in single cases while others (Baumann, Am Philos Q 42:71–79, 2005; Synthese 162:265–273, 2008) deny ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of the South Ural State University. Ser. Computer Technologies, Automatic Control & Radioelectronics
سال: 2019
ISSN: 1991-976X,2409-6571
DOI: 10.14529/ctcr190312